Random Ramblings #13 Wall of Worry

The quarterly update thing is good. I can focus on investing trends and not "trades" which is not something I do anyway except a few punts on crypto. Review time:

1. I was dead on about Iran War, no regime change, no boots on ground. Both India and US equities rallied like I anticipated, which is good. Was more right than wrong this quarter. RBI is heavily intervening and got the sell off under control for INR, but that was mostly helped by the oil prices falling due to war pause. Gold disappointed and I am truly not sure where it goes next, same for HYPE. BTC is flirting with my buy of 57k but simply not hitting, which is frustrating. This is not to say I believe there is a bottom here or anything, I just think it will bounce of 57k level and I want this as a trade.

2. Oil: Honestly as we type this there is talk of war resuming, I think oil as a trade offers more upside on the long side rather than short side. If I were trading this, I'd be long with small size at this point.

3. SPX: As I write this, SPX has had brutal vol but still up 1000 pts since I last published and wrote we should be bullish. We are now in slightly bubbly territory in my opinion, but not much. I believe we can still ride this thing by being long. Bear case of course is that profit margins will be cut due to AI Capex as software companies become hardware companies and are no long "asset light" which great margins. There's also war restarting, debt service, memory price hikes etc. I am not worried about this right now from a vals standpoint.

4. What I did get wrong was thinking we will see a repeat of 2021 cycle. I really thought tech will go to those insane valuations but somehow the market has been keeping it chained together. The moment we start wading into that territory, the market pulls back like someone pulling a leash. This market really doesn't want to go crazy like 2021. Maybe it is because we don't have QE and ZIRP, that was fun. Let's see how it plays out.

5. India: I feel very vindicated on this. Everyone around was bearish, I was a contra. And it bounced well. I believe we are still decently valued and would maintain a long exposure if you are a local investor. On USDINR, it is still under pressure and RBI is doing all it can, but ultimately this will depend on oil prices. I think the RBI will want the INR to stay here for like 3 years if they cannot get it to appreciate vs USD and if I was an FX trader I would be cautious shorting INR now. It is simply down too much. Of course, if you know what you are doing, you can take advantage of war fears which will put pressure on INR.

6. US Bonds: Kevin Warsh came in hawkish, but as I think fixed income offers a good buy opportunity here. Buy US bonds, maybe not duration but short dated coupons to sell for equity later. Currently I don't see a great upside in equities to give them a ultra high allocation in a portfolio. A balanced port makes most sense to me right now.

7. Gold/BTC/Hype: Argh. Gold. I have been wrecked last quarter. Currently no opinion. BTC: waiting for 56-57k. Saylor STRC MSTR all talk of town and my entire feed on Twitter is talking about him. I am a Saylor fan, no clue if he is crazy on knows it, but he is great entertainment. Obv I don't believe in BTC and think it is useful for marginal cases, but crypto makes things fun. Hype: I missed the bull run and I am sad. It probably runs up more though.

8. World Cup: I had flagged Argentina as underrated to win and should have put money on this, would have made like 100% return on Polymarket. Clearly I didn't believe it that much. Good chance we see Argenina vs France again. Or Spain. But Argentina might win. I called Portugal shit and have been vindicated, no way they win. England actually may pull it off too but they choke too much and some team selections were baffling. I am not watching matches, but have lost money so far betting on top scorers (not Messi though he made me money).

9. GOAT debate: People are debating an old Ronaldo and Messi. Useless discourse. They need a life. Both are GOATs. There were times when Ronaldo genuinely was better than Messi for a few years. Different styles, different players, different teams. Not really comparable in my opinion. But no one better. I am of course a Real Madrid fan and biased to Ronaldo, but Messi has proven he is better at many things like playmaking and dribbling. Ronaldo the most lethal finisher of all time. Top 2 ever these guys, I hate to admit it but Messi is the GOAT, same as Ronaldo. Even if you put Messi above, Ronaldo is just a little bit behind. Look at his UCL knockout records and what he did. Put some respect to his name, he has done better than Messi in those toughest stages of football.