2026

"The Future gazing out, a past to overwrite."

***Please do not take anything here seriously I am an idiot & writing this for fun***

I started this thing in 2022 where I would like all other financial analysts, pretend to know what will happen because the earth completed a full revolution around the sun despite having no clue what will happen. I don't see this as an exercise to be right or wrong necessarily, though it is, it is just a way of evaluating where we are and preparing for what is to come. Essentially a plan. I am not going to review what happened last year, since that is the past. We had a good run. Hope 2026 is better. Nothing about these opinions below is something I am married to and will change outlook in a second. Actively managing your positions is what I do. Let's get into it:

1. India: I have been banging about infowars that we are fighting and losing. Our enemies are dedicated and non-stop. We are complacent. Rise in racism, attacks on Hindus, undermining sovereignty. Lots of rats inside who roam freely. We are doing this to ourselves by being asleep and not prioritizing industrialization and development. While ignoring the real problems of jihadis who are simply waiting to kill us. I don't know if this will get better.

   I am also concerned about weak nominal growth in GDP. Unsure of what the fix is here, but we need more growth.

   On the markets side, USDINR should hit 93-94 this year. I know people think 95-96, but I think there's a good possibility of the US govt running it too hot and getting USD to weaken. Atleast for a bit. Lack of foreign investment in stocks should probably result in a year like 2025. I would be surprised to see double digit returns on Nifty, we probably take out ATHs and get a 8-9% return in local currency. Themes I like:

   1. Aquaculture sensors, fish farming

   2. Energy (nuclear, power grid maintenance & building, waste management, AI, energy transmission)

   3. MedTech (manufacturing, modernisation), Skincare Derma drugs, fertility

   4. Aerospace/Defence/Satellite Communication/shipbuilding

   5. Tyres

   6. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (maintenance, supply, replacement)

   7. Paper/Cardboards

   8. Coffee

   9. Corporate Bonds (mutual funds)

2. US: I know I said above that we are all expecting a weaker dollar, but I don't think DXY will have that bad of a year. Sure, we may see it go to 96 or 95, but anything beyond that is not gonna happen. I am not an FX person but if I see those levels I'd think, yeah USD is a buy. For their Bonds, I am with the consensus that they look attractive. I think we will see 3.5% on the 10Y but not much below this. Effectively range bound between 3.5 to 4.1% since inflation will probably prove sticky.

   On the equities side, I'd be surprised to see a big run up. Double digit returns? Probably. But not 2023 and 24 returns. This is a tighter market. Small caps are more attractive here. I know some very smart people have given 8500 for SPX though so worth owning it.

3. China, Japan, Europe? Honestly I have no clue right now. Maybe Chinese tech runs up again. I plan to stay neutral for now.

4. Oil: 55-65 is the range. I'd be shocked to see it outside this.

5. Gold and ugh, Silver: Gold hits 4600 soon but will struggle beyond this level. Worth owning for the upside though as some people I respect think 5200 is in play. Silver: This is trickier. The euphoria is crazy. I wouldn't own it for long term. Maybe a big push to 70 or 71, then sell. Currently don't own any but want to buy if there's a good dip.

6. BTC/HYPE: I love Hype but that chart and crypto sentiment looks ugly. Crypto as a whole seems to be going nowhere and I am the most clueless I have been. There are some levels which I want to trade around, but nothing long term. Many expect BTC to hit 75k or maybe go even lower which is plausible. I expect Hype to hit 14. But it is really tricky and I just want to trade this very short term around my levels.

7. Personal goals: This never changes. Stronger in gym, learn more, grow. I've been reading more and more research and creating my own style. Need to get better at learning and applying. Same old same old.