Random Ramblings #10 Crypto nuke

1. Last time I said I didn't expect much from Indian equities and that was wrong, we did see a nice move up though in November we are back to selling off. Still, nice run for a bit before a difficult start to November. My thinking hasn't changed, we likely won't see any meaningful bull market here. Energy stocks did well, while China went nowhere. US stocks went +ve. The BTC call was goated but I will talk about that & Gold below.

2. Prominent people have asserted we are in a risk off scenario in markets. I agree to a certain extent. AI capex may be showing signs of slowdown, the productivity is still far away. Earnings have been decent but not blown out any expectations. I don't see any reasons to be worried for US stocks, 7000 is on the way even if we stumble. Probably this year, definitely Q126.

3. Time to re-add Gold. It was a nice crash, bottomed out now. I want to have it back as a hedge. The thing is, despite the story you want to tell, it is just like any other thing. Momentum, flows, sentiment.

4. Bitcoin. Wow. Where do I begin. Insane price action. My original call to exit last time was correct, but I tried to be cute and play it for a bounce mid month. I thought it bottomed at 111k and did play the bounce a couple times from this and 107k, but eventually it blew up in my face handing me a major loss. Game is the game. I have never seen such ugly price action in this space and even worse sentiment. Lots of horror stories to read, unsure of how many are true though. Thing is, I have been saying in the past as well, its days of 30% compounded insane returns are over. You had the US govt propose a "reserve". You have ETFs. You have crypto treasury companies. It just won't run like it did. I know the truthers claim it will go to 0.5, 1 and 10M which might be true, but it ain't happening like it used to. Where will the flows come from? Maybe the govts start buying it in bulk, which means we are doomed. I truly hope that doesn't happen.

5. All this doesn't mean I am bearing. Even though BTC blew up in my face this month, I think it bottomed out. Showed good fight whenever it broke below 100k. Return of the bull? I don't know. But I feel comfortable trading it now from dips for a bounce. The worst is behind us. One thing that might be lurking is no major crypto institution has blown up so far. That may be a risk.

6. Moving on, I will keep monthly recaps very brief for saving time. Some highlights:

   1. Some debate about women's right to vote: It is stupid. The world had world wars, genocide etc way before they could participate. Stupidity is inherent in both genders. Both should be objective.

   2. One day, people like me will be proven right about the ignored risks of Jihadis and Islamic extremism and it will be too late. India-Pakistan partition is a trailer of what is to come everywhere, including India again.

   3. I think Apple using Gemini is a smart move. Google is probably paying them, avoids their own capex. They can simply focus on building good products & not go down the AI hole.

   4. Ban shorts & Reels.

   5. Grokipedia is in fact, quite good.

   6. Saw an ad for an AI powered massage center. What are we even doing here man

   7. China regulating influencers is good.

   8. Trump losing Nobel Peace Prize was funny.

   9. People attacking Indian Hindus for their religion are retarded.