Random Ramblings #8 nothingbergers

Mixed bag but still overall great month. US equities didn't chop as I expected but hit 6500 (a possibility I had noted). India was right & China went up (which I missed). Rest went just about as I expected. The big defence trade has been choppy as noted. Now, for September:

1. Expecting recovery on Indian equities. I have been wrong on US but expecting more bullish chop. BTC has been considered a leading signal which screams bearish though and earnings haven't been that great nor bad. I still need to read some transcripts but the general sense is that the AI spend may be slowing down. Not really bearish imo. My boomer way of working is I still read quarterly & annual filings instead of having AI summarize points. Yep, I am an old man.

2. India's GDP print sparked a debate online. I am no economist but it looked like a slowdown to me. Swaraj Kumar made a good argument which changed my mind to this when he argued we should look at Nominal & nominal came sub 10%. I have no solution to this but I will keep crying for industrialisation.

3. Neutral China, probably stay long. Bought some BTC but it isn't doing anything which is annoying. Nonetheless, expecting some bounce here in first week of September & then we will see.

4. Neutral Bonds as I have no clue.

5. I saw a line somewhere that putting up paywalls on news sites has actually led to more misinformation in the world. I think it has definitely been a great contributor & not being stressed upon enough, as people look away from credible-ish reporting to garbage on social media.

6. We need to start shaming people who opposed industrialization & power projects like Medha Patekar & celebrate good things more. India is bad at PR.

7. "There was one manager for every five employees in 2017. That median ratio increased to one manager for every 15 employees by 2023, and it appears to be growing further today, Gartner says." I haven't read the WSJ article but can confirm. This is mostly to cut middle management costs. Though you have functional leads leading the fray. Game's the game, get noticed by doing great work & showing it openly. Even small things. That's my play.

8. Japan has done a great job diversifying its dependence of rare earth supply away from China. Great BBG article: https://t.co/DlhUxo52Lg

9. The China-India-Russia summit is fake & temporary & we know Russia & China are not really good actors. China will betray.

10. 8 pull ups now. The road to 15 only gets harder, but we ain't stopping.

11. Getting data is so hard. I need to do some basic modelling & can't for the love of god find the data I need online.

12. Via some tweet: it is incredible to me that we think we understand ancient texts when the context of even 20 years ago is already lost

13. We aren't scared enough about cyber security & it pisses me off.

14. One Child policy was horrific: https://x.com/jordanschnyc/status/1960447189853077667

15. Friend of mine says he is depressed (no idea why). Female friends tell him to relax & skip gym. I tell him to go harder no idea what depression is like but I imagine I am right. Don't skip gym

16. My lady friends are almost all always anxious & panic quick & hard when something goes wrong. There's a study now to confirm this?

    

17. In 2000, Robert Mugabe, then president of Zimbabwe, won the 1st prize jackpot in a national lottery organized by a government owned bank.

18. There should be a Polymarket on whether Trump will tweet about Taylor Swift's wedding

19. the European STOXX 600 index (their S&P500 equivalent) has only had positive revenue growth in 2 of the last 9 quarters.

20. In US, ETFs outnumber stocks wow.

21. Both right & the left are totally insane man. I can't decide who is more if it were up to me I'd send them both in the gulag.

22. On Chapter 13 of Why Nations Fail right now. It seems the core recurring message is that a nation needs great institutions and people with integrity in them. Extractive systems hold us back. Is that right so far or am I missing some other core takeaway? Nice historical stories

23. Couple at the gym were lying on the floor and holding hands while doing leg raises it is cute seeing them suffer through it I hope they continue & lose their weight.

24. The Saudi kingdom is struggling to deliver its desert-defying ski resort and has held internal discussions about finding alternative countries to host the Asian Winter Games lol.

25. I read Noah Smith's post on why Europeans resists Air Conditioning. Taking it at face value since it seems totally legit, more moronery by the Europeans. So useless

26. I have noticed that youtube documentary makers have now started putting in the message that No AI was used, all humans for their animations. Hahaha

27. India’s private sector posted a record expansion in August—Composite PMI jumped to 65.2, led by an all-time-high services PMI of 65.6 and manufacturing reaching 59.8, the strongest since 2008. Fresh order growth, hiring underline a demand-fuelled boom. This is good.

28. UK 30-Year Yield hit 5.61% this week, the highest level since 1998. Funny.

29. RIP Evergrande. I am old enough to remember when you were the next Lehman & we were all going to go broke

30. Firefox relay is a new feature I see right now on my browser. Seems promising that it allows me to generate fake email addresses to avoid spam

31. Apparently this is a controversial take but a basic thing people don't understand: primary residence is not a part of your net worth or "wealth".

32. "Apple is moving all iPhone 17 models—including Pro versions—to India, manufacturing across five local plants (two newly launched). This is a landmark shift for its U.S. supply chain diversification and cuts reliance on China." Well I hope India does not screw this up.

33. 99% of the "Biohacking" is simply a regular lifting/cardio schedule and a normal diet avoiding junk. Rest matters even less than 1% & is noise. Focus on just 2 things, do other things better.

34. I disabled Ai autocomplete on replit.

35. The real threat from AI dating is to Men as women seek a companion that feeds them lies & sweet talks them always & pretends to understand them enabling bad behavior.

36. I personally find the vanity in people very funny. Spending thousands & time on makeup, hair and clothes. Sure, all power to you. Then they'd also induldge in garbage like drugs, drinking & eating dogshit. Make it make sense.