Random Ramblings #7 Tariffs and Dead Economies

Ok I am running late in writing but it has been busy so I am cracking out posts fast today. I was right about US equities but Indian equities have been sad. Even right now, I was trying to find bullish reasons yesterday & falling short. It appears Trump tariffs will drag Indian momentum down. Not that is is a bad thing. Game is the game and whenever I try to value Indian companies they are at max valuation or overvalued according to my model. Of course, my model may be wrong but still a good reference. It was a mixed bag for the rest. I was half-right about bonds, oil & crypto. China did well & I was wrong. Europe worked like I expected. So, what is next?

1. I am leaning choppy for US equities. They have had a nice run & I think it is time for a steam release. Some very smart people are calling 6500 & I can't dismiss it of course. But expecting chop sideways for now.

2. Bearish India. Neutral China, Crypto & Europe. No view on oil as I haven't been following. Trump called India a dead economy which is outraging people. It is wrong but funny people would get outraged over this. It is Trump. Obv Rahul Gandhi agreed with him & he is retarded. I will be forced to vote Modi again since his opposition is such an idiot. I don't like or dislike Modi, but best we got. Hopefully my dream of an industrialized India comes true. We need to build things. Make it a national emergency. No more niceties & nonsense. I also don't like Trump enabling terrorism through Pakistan but nothing we can do about it. Corruption to the core. Reflects society.

3. The big defence trade is OVER. Often I declare something over recently it comes back though. Like the Gold & china trade. Game's the game.

4. Been trading like $100 on Polymarket for fun. It is very fun. I plan to add more but probably won't be writing about it. People think it is gambling which it is but it is not mindless gambling. There is method here & it is like trading a high yield risky junk bond for me.

5. Just made ChatGPT 5 promise to give me a free 100k in future if it has that capability.

6. I hope this peace deal holds between Azerbaijan & Armenia. But lets be real, Azerbaijan will be back soon to breach it. Bad actors.

7. Since I have to spell it out: Jailtime for such actors who disrupt the game by throwing Sex toys on the court. It is simple people. Though I guess WNBA should be happy since this is free marketing, distasteful as it may be. But wtf. Enforce law & order. Society as a whole should frown upon these things.

8. Liking sports is great because you’ll have a bad day then here your team comes to make it worse

9. Crypto spreads are an absolute nightmare. The industry can never take off & will always remain a rip off for retail with this. I maintain that the "future of finance" is still a scam.

10. We are getting too comfortable with being recorded & it is sad. I don't want AI glasses around me!

11. I am disappointed that no one has launched an LLM called Skynet for the lolz

12. Has anyone done a case study on how bad blogger & medium fumbled the bag in online writing wrt Substack? They had the platform, writers & the audience. But faded into irrelevancy now & dominated by Stack.

13. There was a shooting at Blackstone office in US & some people were celebrating deaths because of their twisted ideology. These types of people are evil scumbags and deserve nothing less than total ostracism from civilized society.

14. KYC scares me because data leaks.

15. HIV prevention drugs are getting approved which is great.

16. Shopping for a new phone for a family member. I could simply pick up my Sony from 2014 & it is the same thing with fancier feel, look and camera. Yes I am aware software & hardware are "upgraded", but goddamn the experience is same. Idc about camera or looks. In fact, give me a fat phone with a big battery. Idgaf about feel & looks.

17. Astrology companies are becoming rich is India. Moral failing for us as a society.

18. German trains don't run on time anymore? Absolute state of Europe being a shithole

19. I noticed that some people live for social media validation & likes. Get a life. Stop being insecure.

20. RBI is doing climate disclosure stuff for banks. Very annoying.

21. Where is the outrage for the Druze in Syria? I can never take anyone seriously who has selective outrage for only select causes & then pretends to champion justice.

22. Does any company make "dumb" refrigerators, dishwashers, washing machines, dryers, etc.? I'm tired of these smart products breaking down every three years.

23. If I had more money than God like Bill Ackman, I'd give a billion to Real Madrid & then get on-demand pass to train with players anytime during pre-season.

24. Portual ain't winning the world cup.