Random Ramblings #4

What a great month!

I am not going to recap major data points since that has been done to death, but this was without a doubt the most entertaining month I can recall. Just wild price swings, I had a blast. Could have done better, but hindsight is 20-20. How I expect May to go:

1. Gold has topped out for short term. Last time I said my year end target is 3500 & it moved to fast & actually hit 3500 before tumbling hard. I think my conviction is a lot less now on the bull side than I had the previous month. More donwside, I saw some people comment on a 2600 target & which that seems ridiculous, there is a higher chance of this happening than people are expecting.

2. Expecting flat-ish US Equities this month. India slightly bullish & I have been adding. I thought airlines are a good play but was talked out of it. This month will be calmer than April as I think the Trump admin is done with chaos for now. At the end of the day, markets will break them. Markets are anti-fragile.

3. Brazil is looking like a good play. Maintaining China long.

4. Dollar bottomed out (DXY) but USDINR is depreciating. Not on my bingo card. Great news though INR has been under a lot of pressure previously but I think upside for USDINR is just not there for now.

5. Oil continues to be a bad long & will continue to do so.

6. Bitcoin. I don't have a view on it right now. I bought & sold it during April & it was a good trade.

7. War stuff: I don't know where to begin & I am not going to dive into how I feel about this so will keep this purely from a market point of view. I don't think India has the appetite for war but will continue to escalate by other means. Which is a good thing. Shipbuilding, defence companies have been doing good & should continue for now.

   Ukraine war: A lot of people thought Ukraine was over but well, it is far from over.

8. I complete 4 years as a professional tomorrow! What a great ride.

9. Zuckerberg was talking about AI friends supplementing real ones. Lord save us.

10. Real Madrid is a shit club!

11. Bring back the away rule in football.

12. Epic won the lawsuit against Apple. Good.

13. Some people still think there should be a gold standard. They are not serious people.

14. I don't understand why RBI is doing QE.

15. Reading while traveling sucks.

16. Wrote what I thought was a good piece of code. Gave it to Gemini for improvements thinking it will make slight adjustments. It blew apart my code & reinvented everything. Sure, it was way better, but it also hurt.

17. A 100 men can kill a gorilla. People be underestimating us.

18. Call me paranoid, but giving AI your info is probably not a smart move

19. Been watching Andor. So good.

20. Lots of fanfare about Creatine online. It is not that much of a magic pill.

21. Declining birth rate reason #10: Kids clothing & toys are too expensive I saw a Real Madrid kids jersey selling for prices I wouldn't pay for myself. That kid will grow out of it after 10 months I'd wear mine for 10 years. I wanted to get the kids when they are young as Madrid fans but guess not.

22. Daredevil season 4 was ok.

23. Ships are cool.

24. Jack thinks we should delete IP Law. I maintain my position that there is something very off about that guy.

25. To think that Argentina memecoin rugpull was only 3 months ago. So was Trump scamcoin. What a year.

26. Went for a bench PR & failed badly.

27. Spices are overrated.

28. If the Indian bureaucracy has any sense they abandon their thievery of the country & start ramping up manufacturing & defence. Do whatever it takes. China has a free hand to land grab & bully. It is not an if, it is when.

29. Ghibli trend died so fast.

30. In school I had this moronic teacher who used to say that our school days will be the best days of our life. I saw this repeated yesterday by somebody. It is a sad & frankly pathetic thing to say to a kid who has his/her whole life ahead. Or for an adult to say about themselves. Peaked in high school? Sucks for you bro. Some of us enjoyed college & work & family. And not relying on parents' handouts. The best is ahead. Enjoy the good & the bad. That is what I tell the young ones atleast.